GBP/USD dropped to as low as 1.5268 last week before forming a temporary low there and recovered. Initial bias is neutral this week for some consolidations. But recovery is expected to be limited well below 38.2% retracement of 1.6300 to 1.5268 at 1.5662 and bring fall resumption. Below 1.5268 will turn bias back to the downside for 1.5234 key support first. Break there will have larger bearish implication and should pave the way to 1.5 psychological level and below.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.3503 (2009 low) are treated as consolidations to long term down trend from 2.1161, no change in this view. Such consolidation could be in form of a triangle that's completed at 1.6300 but and current downward thus is favoring this view. Focus remains on 1.5234 support and decisive break there will suggest that down trend from 2.1161 is resuming for a new low below 1.3503.
In the longer term picture, the corrective nature of the multi-decade advance from 1.0463 (85 low) to 2.1161 as well as the impulsive nature of the fall from there suggests that GBP/USD is now in an early stage of a long term down trend. Another low below 1.3503 is anticipated after consolidation from there is confirmed to be completed.
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