EUR/GBP's strong rebound last week indicates that consolidation from 0.7949 is still in progress. Initial bias is mildly on the upside for 0.8101 and above. Nonetheless, we'd expect strong resistance from 38.2% retracement of 0.8505 to 0.7949 at 0.8161 to limit upside and bring fall resumption eventually. Below 0.7970 will extend recent fall from 0.9083 to next important fibonacci level at 0.7782.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 0.9799 is treated as a long term consolidation pattern with fall from 0.9083 as the third leg. Strong support is expected inside 0.7693/8186 support zone to conclude the consolidation. Thus, we'll be looking at reversal signal now. Though, as long as 0.8221 support turned resistance holds, another decline is still in favor, possibly to 61.8% retracement of 0.6535 to 0.9799 at 0.7782 before fall from 0.9083 completes. On the other hand, break of 0.8221 will indicate reversal and EURGBP could then have started another leg inside the consolidation pattern, or resumed the larger up trend.
In the long term picture, long term up trend from 2000 low of 0.5680 shouldn't be over yet and the choppy fall from 2008 high of 0.9799 should be a correction only. We'd expect such correction to be contained by 0.7963/0.8186 support zone and bring up trend resumption. Rise from 0.5680 is still expected to extend beyond 0.9799 high eventually.
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