Asian Session Notes

NZDUSD

Resistances: 0.7536 minor / 0.7581 moderate / 0.7638 moderate

Support: 0.7500 minor / 0.7456 strong / 0.7421 minor

It appears that the lost momentum suggested by the weekly candle remains to be in play with daily charts seeing mixed signals in Kiwi with stochastic just pushing oversold and macd above the signal line. Note we have a strong support at the 0.7456 region. In the lower time frames we have mixed signals in hourly charts with stochastic coming off oversold levels and macd just crossing lower. Indicators from the 4H level are bearish with macd’s down and stochastic also below its signal though we need a close under 0.7500 to see a sell-off. At the moment we are just above a congestion floow with a long tail for the hourly candle suggesting an earlier false break.

GBPUSD

Resistance: 1.5429 minor / 1.5468 minor / 1.5523 minor

Support: 1.5361 minor / 1.5329 moderate / 1.5262 minor

Among the majors Cable turned out to be the weakest Thursday sticking near its lows at the end of the trading day. From indicators we have a confluence of bears from the daily picture to the lower time frames. Looking at stochastic we find it oversold in the daily charts, poised to push oversold in 4H levels while hourly stochastic is below 20. The macd for the three time frames has been dropping for a significant amount of time as well. Immediate risk in Cable calls for weakness but with everyone apparently already selling we prefer looking for a break of the support at 1.5361 before jumping short.

EURUSD

Resistance: 1.2378 minor / 1.2426 moderate / 1.2472 strong

Support: 1.2321 moderate / 1.2282 minor / 1.2229 minor

Thursday saw EURUSD closing with a spinning top near the trend lows, this suggests a loss of momentum though with Asian trading already seeing news lows this may have been negated. Among indicators we see a confluence of bears for the daily picture with stochastic pushing further into oversold levels while macd is down. In intraday charts we have stochastic poised to go oversold in both hourly and 4-hour picture while macd is also bearish. Overall bias in EURUSD is bearish though we prefer jumping short from just under 1.2378 or only on a close below 1.2321 the moderate support.

AUDUSD

Resistance: 0.9717 minor / 0.9758 moderate / 0.9803 moderate

Support: 0.9665 strong / 0.9623 minor / 0.9574 minor

Thursday saw a sharp sell-off in AUDUSD following the shootings and gravestone doji’s the prior day. Daily indicators now has stochastic reentering oversold areas while macd is in the process of crossing lower. Note we have strong rating for 0.9665, the immediate support. In the lower time-frames we have a confluence of bears in both 4H and hourly indicators with the latter seeing an oversold stochastic. For now we have Chinese Manufacturing PMI at 0100GMT poor numbers should be a catalyst for further weakness and a test of the 0.9665 strong support, a sub 50 read could see us pushing under the said price. Consider shorts from just under 0.9717 with tight stops above.

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