GBP/JPY dipped to 124.17 last week and the break of 124.64 confirmed resumption of whole fall from 133.48. While some consolidations could be seen initially this week, upside is expected to be limited by 126.45. The current fall is expected to continue to 61.8% retracement of 116.83 to 133.48 at 123.19 next. Sustained break there will target a test on 116.83/117.29 support zone next. On the upside, though, note that break of 126.45 resistance will indicate short term bottoming and stronger rebound should then be seen to 127.10 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, rebound from 116.83 should have completed with three waves up to 133.48. The corrective structure in turn argue that medium term choppy fall from 163.05 is still in progress. Below 116.83 will target 110 psychological level and below. Meanwhile, sustained break of 127.10 resistance will raise the odds that another high above 133.48 would be seen. But after all, rebound from 116.83 will still be treated as a correction and strong resistance should be seen below 140.02 even in that case.
In the longer term picture, fall from 251.09 is treated as resumption of multi decade down trend. Current development dampens the case of medium term bottoming and GBP/JPY would likely drop towards 100 psychological level on down trend resumption.
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