I have been a news and market analyst for over 20 years. I know the markets are erratic and reactionary. I know that no one can predict the markets, but overall they have always made sense to me. I could see the reasons behind a trend up or down. After the fact, I could explain it all away. When I had a losing trade, I could after the trade, see what I missed or how it had all gone wrong. I could make sense out of it all.
Over the past 60 days or so as the Greek crisis, became the major news story and market maker, I could understand, I could rationalize, I could imagine. I could in most cases see all sides of the issues and stories and understand what each party wanted or needed. I could see the value in decisions, I could understand the economics and the finances.
As deadlines moved closer, I could not for the life of me, understand how so many respected public figures could or would make statement, comments or issue press releases that were so wrong, flawed or incorrect. How many were just conjectures or hopes. As the pressures increased and new scenarios were put forward, I started to see through the veils and guises that these public figures were to see that they were just hucksters, underneath, trying to sell medicine water. I realized they spoke way too much, made too many public statements and were always trying the one up each other, but I never imagined how many of these lawmakers, were at heart lawbreakers or law circumventers. I watched day by day the manipulations and re-interpretations. I watched the ECB lose credibility; I watched the soap opera love affair between Merkel and Sarkozy. I watched the name calling last week between the Germans and the Greeks. But I shall move on.
Finally on Tuesday I wrote an article where I said I hoped and prayed that I would not be writing about Greece again for a while.. And I am not...
I put Greece to bed, I put it behind us, I told myself, regardless of the bailout agreement and their creditors' agreement, that without the support and confidence of the Greek citizens Greece will not thrive, it will barely survive. So in my mind, it was just more money down the tubes and the EU managed to put off a default for a period. I was also hoping that the markets had moved on with me.
I watched the euro and the dollar zigzag up and down for the next few days over "worries about Greece", they never seem to go away. I was sure hoping that we could return to market fundamentals and some good old technical analysis, to get things back into perspective. Ok enough said here...
What has me in a tizzy today, a quandary... is I cannot explain, understand, or fathom what is going on in the global markets, I cannot figure out what is making investors tick these day.
Last evening, as I was preparing some fundamental reports, I changed my charts to gold, which was down at a few minutes before the close, in the blink of an eye gold climbed over 30.00. I do not know why, I cannot find a rational explanation. This morning, I was getting ready to teach a live trading class. I was doing a Cross Market option between Gold and the Euro, which should have been fairly easy, the euro was holding at 1.323..and gold was stable at 1775.25, there should have been no reason that I could predict or explain but within seconds the euro was trading above the 1.33 line climbing as high as 1.3342.
Ca n you explain... can you help...tell me what you think, am I crazy or am I missing something. Please share your thoughts and comments.