USD/JPY finally had a downside breakout last week and made new record low at 75.80 before recovering. Some consolidations might be seen initially this week but recovery should be limited by 76.60 minor resistance and bring another fall. Below 75.80 will target 61.8% projection of 80.23 to 75.94 from 77.48 at 74.82 first, and the 100% projection at 73.19. Though, a break of 76.60 will turn focus back to 77.48 resistance instead.
In the bigger picture, USD/JPY is still staying well inside the falling channel that started back in 2007 at 124.13. There is no indication of trend reversal yet even though medium term downside momentum is diminishing with bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Such down trend is still in favor to continue to 70 psychological level. In any case, break of 77.48 resistance is first needed to indicate completion of fall from 85.51. Secondly, break of 85.51 is needed to be the first signal of medium term reversal. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish in the pair.
In the long term picture, current decline suggests that the long term down trend in USD/JPY is still in progress. Such down trend is expected to extend further into uncharted territory with 70 psychological level as next target. In any case, we'd at least need to see sustained break of 85.51 before considering trend reversal.
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