Housing: Bad Quarter, Weak Year

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August 3, 2011 10:23 AM EST

Building approvals slumped in June, the June quarter and the year to June while house prices for the year to June and the June quarter were also lower.

The news came hours before the RBA board meeting which decided to keep the cash rate steady at 4.75%.

The data confirmed for the RBA board, that housing (and house prices) continues to do it tough, like much of the rest of the non-mining economy.

The picture painted by the figures (and by earlier figures showing a big fall in new home sales) tells us that home buyers have retreated into their shells, much like shoppers.

But the figures show that the Sydney property market probably has a bit more life in it than it did at the start of this year.

Nationally, building approvals fell 3.5% in June, following 6.3% drop in May.

In seasonally adjusted terms, approvals for private sector houses fell 3.2% in June with falls in Victoria (-8.1%), New South Wales (-4.8%), Queensland (-4.5%) and South Australia (-3.4%).

The ABS said there was a sharp rise in Western Australia (11.3%).

The value of total building approved fell 2.2% in June in seasonally adjusted terms.

The value of total residential building fell by 4.1% while non-residential building rose by 1.3% after a 4.4% fall in May.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said yesterday that seasonally adjusted, approvals fell in June in Queensland by a massive 18.6%.

And they were down in South Australia by 12.2%, Tasmania (-8.1%) and Western Australia (-3.0%).

But they rose in Victoria by 6.9% and New South Wales (3.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, approvals for private sector houses fell 3.2% in June with falls in Victoria (-8.1%), New South Wales (-4.8%), Queensland (-4.5%) and South Australia (-3.4%) while there was a rise in Western Australia (11.3%).

The value of total building approved fell 2.2% in June in seasonally adjusted terms. The value of total residential building fell by 4.1% while non-residential building rose by 1.3% after a 4.4% fall in May.

For the year to June, the ABS said there was a 5.1% fall, to 162,685 in the total number of dwelling units approved in 2010-11.

  "Nationally, the number of house approvals fell 13.5% from the previous year while other dwellings rose 12.0%," the ABS said.

"The estimate for the total number of dwelling units approved fell in Queensland (-19.5%), Western Australia (-17.8%), South Australia (-10.6%), Tasmania (-6.0%) and New South Wales (-2.1%) while the Australian Capital Territory (28.7%), Victoria (5.8%) and the Northern Territory (0.1%) all rose.

"The fall in number of houses approved during 2010-11 was driven by a 12.4% decrease in private sector approvals and a 47.2% fall in public sector approvals.

"The increase in other dwellings was driven by a 30.9% increase in private sector approvals while the public sector decreased by 62.7%.

"Overall private sector dwelling units approved rose by 0.2% and public sector dwelling units approved fell by 58.7%."

The ABS said the value of total building approved in 2010-11 was $74.745 billion, down 13.9% from 2009-10, with total residential building approvals showing a rise and non-residential building approvals recording a fall.

All states and territories showed falls in the estimate for the value of total non-residential building, with Tasmania (-42.4%), Western Australia (-41.9%) and New South Wales (-40.8%) the largest in percentage terms.

The ABS said the Australian Capital Territory (25.1%), Victoria (11.2%), New South Wales (4.6%) and the Northern Territory (4.5%) recorded increases in the value of total residential building approvals.

And other ABS figures out yesterday showed that capital city house prices fell in the three months to June.

The weighted average of eight capital cities slipped 0.1% in the June quarter from a revised 1.1% fall in the March quarter.

On an annual basis house prices declined 1.9% from a revised flat result for in the year to March, the ABS said.

The near 2% fall in 2010-11 was the largest 12 monthly fall since the 5.5% drop in the year to March 2009, according to the ABS.

The ABS said Sydney house prices rose 0.4% for the June quarter, while Canberra's rose 1.1%. Melbourne's home prices were off just 0.1%, while Brisbane's dropped 0.3%, Perth's fell 1% and Adelaide's lost 0.8%.

From a year earlier, Sydney house prices were off 0.7%, Melbourne's fell 2%, Adelaide's fell 2.1%, Brisbane's slumped 3.6% (understandable given the January floods) and Perth's fell a nasty 4.1%.

Prices increased in Hobart (+2.8%) and Canberra (+2.2%), according to the ABS.

The ABS figures were around the same level as other data.

For example RP Data-Rismark said home prices have fallen 2% in the year to June.

 

Copyright Australasian Investment Review.
AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at www.aireview.com.au

 

Building approvals slumped in June, the June quarter and the year to June while house prices for the year to June and the June quarter were also lower.

The news came hours before the RBA board meeting which decided to keep the cash rate steady at 4.75%.

The data confirmed for the RBA board, that housing (and house prices) continues to do it tough, like much of the rest of the non-mining economy.

The picture painted by the figures (and by earlier figures showing a big fall in new home sales) tells us that home buyers have retreated into their shells, much like shoppers.

But the figures show that the Sydney property market probably has a bit more life in it than it did at the start of this year.

Nationally, building approvals fell 3.5% in June, following 6.3% drop in May.

In seasonally adjusted terms, approvals for private sector houses fell 3.2% in June with falls in Victoria (-8.1%), New South Wales (-4.8%), Queensland (-4.5%) and South Australia (-3.4%).

The ABS said there was a sharp rise in Western Australia (11.3%).

The value of total building approved fell 2.2% in June in seasonally adjusted terms.

The value of total residential building fell by 4.1% while non-residential building rose by 1.3% after a 4.4% fall in May.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics said yesterday that seasonally adjusted, approvals fell in June in Queensland by a massive 18.6%.

And they were down in South Australia by 12.2%, Tasmania (-8.1%) and Western Australia (-3.0%).

But they rose in Victoria by 6.9% and New South Wales (3.2%).

In seasonally adjusted terms, approvals for private sector houses fell 3.2% in June with falls in Victoria (-8.1%), New South Wales (-4.8%), Queensland (-4.5%) and South Australia (-3.4%) while there was a rise in Western Australia (11.3%).

The value of total building approved fell 2.2% in June in seasonally adjusted terms. The value of total residential building fell by 4.1% while non-residential building rose by 1.3% after a 4.4% fall in May.

For the year to June, the ABS said there was a 5.1% fall, to 162,685 in the total number of dwelling units approved in 2010-11.

  "Nationally, the number of house approvals fell 13.5% from the previous year while other dwellings rose 12.0%," the ABS said.

"The estimate for the total number of dwelling units approved fell in Queensland (-19.5%), Western Australia (-17.8%), South Australia (-10.6%), Tasmania (-6.0%) and New South Wales (-2.1%) while the Australian Capital Territory (28.7%), Victoria (5.8%) and the Northern Territory (0.1%) all rose.

"The fall in number of houses approved during 2010-11 was driven by a 12.4% decrease in private sector approvals and a 47.2% fall in public sector approvals.

"The increase in other dwellings was driven by a 30.9% increase in private sector approvals while the public sector decreased by 62.7%.

"Overall private sector dwelling units approved rose by 0.2% and public sector dwelling units approved fell by 58.7%."

The ABS said the value of total building approved in 2010-11 was $74.745 billion, down 13.9% from 2009-10, with total residential building approvals showing a rise and non-residential building approvals recording a fall.

All states and territories showed falls in the estimate for the value of total non-residential building, with Tasmania (-42.4%), Western Australia (-41.9%) and New South Wales (-40.8%) the largest in percentage terms.

The ABS said the Australian Capital Territory (25.1%), Victoria (11.2%), New South Wales (4.6%) and the Northern Territory (4.5%) recorded increases in the value of total residential building approvals.

And other ABS figures out yesterday showed that capital city house prices fell in the three months to June.

The weighted average of eight capital cities slipped 0.1% in the June quarter from a revised 1.1% fall in the March quarter.

On an annual basis house prices declined 1.9% from a revised flat result for in the year to March, the ABS said.

The near 2% fall in 2010-11 was the largest 12 monthly fall since the 5.5% drop in the year to March 2009, according to the ABS.

The ABS said Sydney house prices rose 0.4% for the June quarter, while Canberra's rose 1.1%. Melbourne's home prices were off just 0.1%, while Brisbane's dropped 0.3%, Perth's fell 1% and Adelaide's lost 0.8%.

From a year earlier, Sydney house prices were off 0.7%, Melbourne's fell 2%, Adelaide's fell 2.1%, Brisbane's slumped 3.6% (understandable given the January floods) and Perth's fell a nasty 4.1%.

Prices increased in Hobart (+2.8%) and Canberra (+2.2%), according to the ABS.

The ABS figures were around the same level as other data.

For example RP Data-Rismark said home prices have fallen 2% in the year to June.

 

Copyright Australasian Investment Review.
AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at www.aireview.com.au

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