Articles By Tim Hannagan
Thursdays weekly export sales report came out at 7:30 AM Central Time telling us how much of each of the grains were sold for future shipment. Wheat exports were 71 TMT, down 87% from the previous week and 81% under our four week average. New crop sales for delivery after June 1 were 234 TMT. Both old and new crop sales show a bearish trend of demand.
Monday's first demand report came out with our weekly export inspections report showing that 24.8 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near-term export versus 23.6 the week prior and equal our four week average. Top world buyer Egypt was in for 2.3 million bushels versus zero last week and under our four week average of 3.5 million bushels.
Wheat exports were 550 t.m.t. versus 262 the week prior. Sales were all small purchases by Asian countries looking for feed quality wheat. Major world wheat buyer Egypt was absent from the list as they're sitting on about 80 days of supplies totaling 1.8 million metric tons.
USDA crop report Wednesday was all about nothing by days end with only marginal changes on corn and beans. We had our usual violent knee-jerk reaction on the report's release and that will continue as long as reports come out while markets are open.
On my last report I covered wheat and corn as to last Thursday's big crop report so that the report wasn't 30 minutes of reading. I promised to cover soybeans on Friday's report.
After going dormant last November, and our winter wheat crop with 33% of the crop in good to excellent condition, we got our first crop emergence condition report Monday at 3 PM Central Time. It put all winter wheat breaking dormancy at 34% in good-to-excellent condition, up 1% from November when we went dormant. The lowest rate was 31% in 2002.
Let's address demand first. Mondays weekly export inspections report showed 20.7 million bushels of wheat was inspected for near-term export down from 23.9 the week prior and the four week average of 24. Though lower on the week, big players like Egypt were in for 4.8 million bushels versus 2.5 last week and China in for 2.2 versus 1.7 the week prior.
Weekly export sales report came out Thursday at 7:30 AM Central Time with a swath of bearish demand numbers. Wheat export sales last week were 484 TMT, down 46% from the week prior and 25% under the four week average. All the buyers were small lot feed quality purchases, with no big buyers of wheat for human consumption. The world's big monthly buyer, Egypt, was absent from the list.
Monday's weekly export inspections report showed a demand slowdown across the board. Wheat inspected for near-term export came in at 23.9 million bushels, down from 28.6 the week prior and four week average of 25 M.B. Key world buyer Egypt was in for 2.5 million bushels, versus 6.9 the week prior. It's not a bearish report like 15 or 18 M.B.
Thursdays weekly export sales report showed 888 t.m.t. of wheat was inspected for near-term export, up 44% from the week prior. 800 or more is considered demand friendly for prices. One week with bullish demand doesn't change months of bearish demand numbers, but it's the first signal demand is surfacing.